Scenario development

The scenario development as a central method of the future research is based on an analysis of key factors. Their characteristics are the basis for possible scenarios. A method mix can be used for this purpose (for example, future workshops, future conferences, morphological matrix). Scenarios of exploratory, quantitative or normative nature can be used. The choice is based on the project objective.

The ISÖ applies the narrative scenario development in the ongoing project “Future scenarios of the assistance to the elderly in Schleswig-Holstein 2030/45”. Based on trend analyzes, possible scenarios are developed through a participatory approach in a method mix of two future workshops and a final future conference.