Scientific trend analysis

Looking into the future may often be unsafe. On the other hand, trends are a long-term development, how the future might look like. For this purpose qualitative and quantitative data are collected in order to create an information base. The principle of “theoretical saturation” derived from the so-called “Grounded Theory”, a leading school of qualitative social research, determines the choice of methods and the penetration of the field of investigation.

For example, the ISÖ developed seven trends (demographic change, social systems, social change, technology, changing values, care and mobility) for the project ‘Future scenarios of the assistance to the elderly in Schleswig-Holstein 2030/45′ by desktop research and expert interviews. These formed the basis of the scenario generation within the project.