Future scenarios of the assistance to the elderly in Schleswig-Holstein 2030/45

Period: September 2016 – March 2018

Funding: Diakonisches Werk Schleswig-Holstein – National Association of the Inner Mission e.V.
Project management: Prof. Dr. Michael Opielka
Project processing: Sophie Peter, M.Sc .; Dipl.-Soz. Franz Hiss (Collaboration Trend Analyzes); Prof. Dr. Erich Schäfer (moderation); Dr. Michaela Schwarzbach (Consulting)
Publications: in preparation

In a participatory scenario process, the future the assistance to the elderly in Schleswig-Holstein is researched and co-designed.

There is a great prognostic uncertainty about the paths that future developments in the area of the assistance to the elderly will take. Exact predictions are not possible if – as is the case in future research – a topic is considered over an extended period of 15-30 years, because social practices, social conditions and political decisions, especially also in their interactions are difficult to predict. The high numbers of involved actors in the area of elderly care as well as the overall heterogeneous actor landscape also increase the uncertainties. The project period covers the period of one generation with 15-30 years. Although no accurate predictions are possible over such a long period of time, this period illustrates the profound changes which are made e.g. in the digital field in 30 years.

Since the selected long time horizon can only be reached very sensibly in a prognostic manner, a participatory, moderated actor dialogue is to lead to normative, design-oriented perspectives of the elderly in Schleswig-Holstein. Against the backdrop of foreseeable changing conditions – for example, demographic change, “shrinking / growing” social spaces in Schleswig-Holstein – the question is to be asked which forms of old-age aid can be attractive, enriching and purposeful or meaningful. We should find answers to the question: “How can we grow old everywhere?” It would be a great success if a scenario process could generate positive future images and design goals of age and care. Based on this, operational solutions are to be proposed, strategic processes and measures for the way to this goal are developed and implemented.

The purpose of the scenario process is to develop well-founded positive “narratives” for actors and regions, to create pathways to the future so that in 15 years and later, a “path dependency” can be looked back on, quality assurance, commitment and security well linked.

Soon you will find the online survey on the future of elderly assistance!

Go to project site